The Ripple Effects of Abortion Bans: A Glimpse into Texas' Future
Following the implementation of a strict abortion ban in Texas, there was a 12.9% rise in infant deaths across the state.
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In the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade in June 2022, states across the nation have been creating stricter rules about abortion access. As debates continue about these policies’ impacts, one state’s experience shows us what can happen after such restrictions.
Alison Gemmill and colleagues conducted a rigorous study to examine the effects of Texas Senate Bill 8 (SB8), which started in September 2021. The law banned abortions after about 6 weeks of pregnancy, when a doctor can detect a heartbeat—before many people even know they’re pregnant. The law was different from previous abortion bans because it allowed ordinary citizens to sue anyone who helps a pregnant person get an abortion—including doctors, family members, and even taxi drivers taking that person to a clinic. The researchers compared infant deaths in Texas to 28 other states before and after this law took effect. This helped them see what might have happened without the ban in place versus what actually occurred following its institution.
The figure above shows the monthly differences between expected and observed infant deaths in Texas from January 2018 to December 2022, comparing the years before and after the law. Between 2021 and 2022, infant deaths in Texas increased from 1,985 to 2,240, a 12.9% rise compared to just 1.8% in the rest of the United States. The researchers found 216 more infant deaths than expected in the ten months after the ban started.
The researchers found that deaths related to anatomical defects increased by 22.9% in Texas while dropping by 3.1% in other states during the same period. Texas also saw a 73.3% increase in deaths from a serious bowel condition in newborns, while other states only saw a 6.4% increase.
As states create new rules about abortion, the Texas numbers show how limiting abortion access can lead to more infant deaths. These changes affect not just individual families, but entire communities and future generations.
